Disaggregated Agricultural Output and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Evidence from a Linear

Wasiu Omotayo Lawal; Zainab Abubakar

doi:10.59413/eafj/v5.i1.12

Authors

Wasiu Omotayo Lawal Department of Economics , Al-Hikmah University Author
Zainab Abubakar Department of Economic , Federal University Dutse Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59413/eafj/v5.i1.12

Keywords:

Agricultural output, Crop production, Fishery production, Livestock production, Forestry production, Economic growth

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of agricultural output on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria from 1980 to 2024. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing was employed to examine the dynamics of short-run and long-run impact analysis. The stationarity properties of the variables are employed using the ADF, PP, and KPSS tests. The cointegration test confirms the existence of a co-movement between agricultural output variables and real gross domestic product. The results indicate that crop and forestry outputs exert significant positive effects on GDP, whereas livestock and fishery outputs are positive but statistically insignificant. Inflation also exhibits a positive and significant impact on real gross domestic product, while interest rate and exchange rate effects are negligible. In the short-run dynamics, the result revealed that changes in livestock and crop production significantly influence real GDP; the diagnostic tests confirm model stability, absence of serial correlation, homoskedasticity, and normality of residuals. Overall, the findings underscore the centrality of agriculture, particularly crop and forestry subsectors, in driving Nigeria’s economic performance, highlighting the need for policies that enhance agricultural productivity, value chain development, and sectoral integration to sustain long-term economic growth.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abubakar, I.F. &Ibrahin, U.B. (2019).A macroeconomic analysis of the agricultural sector in Nigeria. Advanced Journal of Social Science, 5(1), 18-25

Adeola, F., & Ikpesu, F. (2016). Agricultural productivity and economic growth in Nigeria. African Journal of Agricultural Economics, 12(1), 45-62.

Adeosun, T., Asare-Nuamah, P., & Mabe, F. (2021). Agricultural output and food security in Africa: A case study of Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Policy and Development, 18(3), 112-134.National Bureau of Statistics [NBS]. (2022). Agricultural employment and productivity report 2022. NBS Publications.

Agyei, S., & Idan, G. (2022). Trade openness, institutions and inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sage Journals, 12(2), 1–12.

Aigbokha, B. (2011). Resuscitating agricultural production (Cocoa, Cotton, Groundnut, Palm Oil, Rubber, etc..) For Export. CBN proceedings of the 10th Annual Conference of the Zonal Research Unit, Ibadan,

Awe, E. E. O., Adamu, A., & Oyelayo, M. O. (2025). Agricultural productivity, economic growth, and poverty reduction in Nigeria: A trend analysis approach. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), 9(8), 2629 2641.

Bekun, F. V. (2015). The contribution of the agricultural sector to the economic growth of Nigeria (1981-2013). A Research paper submitted to Institute of Graduate Studies, Eastern Mediterranean University, Gazimagusa, North Cyprus.

Bogdanov, B. (2010). Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy over Business Cycle: An Empirical Study on Developed and Developing Countries. Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting, Working paper Series.

Bruinsma, J. (Ed.) (2003). World agriculture: towards 2015/2030, an FAO Perspective. London: Earthscan.

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). (2023). Annual report: Anchor Borrowers’ Programme review. Retrieved from https://www.cbn.gov.ng

Delgado, C. L., Rosegrant, M. W. & Meijer, S. (2001). Livestock to 2020: The Revolution Continues. Paper presented at the annual meetings of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC), Aukland, New Zealand, January 18-19.

Ekine, D.I. &Onu, C. (2018).The impact of agricultural output on economic growth in Nigeria 1981-2015.IOSR Journal of Economic and finance (IOSR-FEF), 9(4), pp10-14

Etea, I. &Obodoechi, D.N. (2019). Agricultural output and economic growth/; The Nigerian case . DBN Journal of Economics and Sustainable Growth, 2(1), 2-19.

Fadare, O., Srinivasan, C., &Zanello, G. (2024). Livestock diversification mitigates the impact of farmer-herder conflicts on animal-source foods consumption in Nigeria. Food Policy, 122, 102586.

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2023). Nigeria country programming framework 2023–2027. Rome: FAO.

Ghimire, A., Lin, F., & Zhuang, P. (2021). The impacts of agricultural trade on economic growth and environmental pollution: Evidence from Bangladesh using ARDL in the presence of structural breaks. Sustainability, 13(15), Article 8336.

Ikala, P. A. (2010). Impact of public agriculture expenditure on agricultural output and economic growth (1978-2007) [Unpublished master’s thesis]. Caritas University.

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). (2021). Unlocking the potential of African agriculture: Opportunities and challenges. Retrieved from https://www.ifpri.org.

Leoning, J. L., Durevall, D., & Birru, Y. A. (2009). Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy: The case of Ethiopia (Policy Research Working Paper No. 4969). The World Bank, Africa Region, Agricultural and Rural Development Unit.

M.H. Pesaran and Y. Shin, An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, In: Strom, S., Holly, A., Diamond, P.(Eds.), Centennial Volume of Rangar Frisch, Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, (1999).

M.H. Pesaran, R.J. Smith and Y. Shin, Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, (2001), 289-326.

Matthew, O. (2019). Agricultural sector performance and its contribution to the Nigerian economy. Nigerian Journal of Economics and Development, 19(4), 342–359.

Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 4(8), 123–132.

National Bureau of Statistics [NBS]. (2022). Agricultural employment and productivity report 2022. NBS Publications.

Noko, E. J. (2015). Impact of agricultural sector on Nigeria economic growth and development (1981-2015). Retrieved from http://educainfo.com/agricultural-sector-nigeria-economic-growth/ February 10, 2018.

Ogbonna, S. I., & Osondu, C. K. (2015). Determinants of supply of funds to agricultural sector from formal sources in Nigeria from 1992 to 2012. Greener Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 5(3), 081-092.

Oji-Okoro, I. (2011). Analysis of the contribution of agricultural sector on the Nigerian economic development. World Review of Business Research, 1(1),191–200.

Oji-Okoro, I. (2011). Analysis of the contribution of agricultural sector on the Nigerian economic development. World Review of Business Research, 1(1), 191–200.

Oladipo, T., Iyoha, F., Fakile, A., Asaleye, A., & Eluyela, D. (2019). Economic performance and agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 15(4), 78-95.

Olajide 0, (2012), Agricultural Resource and Economic Growth in Nigeria. European Scientific Journal 8(22).

Omoruyi, A., & Edohen, P. O. (2025). Impact of agricultural financing mechanisms on agricultural output in Nigeria: Evidence from ARDL modelling (2009–2023). Journal of Corporate Governance, Insurance, and Risk Management, 12(1), 36 47.

Oyinbo, O. & Rekwot, G. Z. (2014). Agricultural production & economic growth in Nigeria:Implication for rural poverty alleviation. Ahmed Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture 53, (3)

Pooyth, D., Hassan, R., Kirsten, T. F. & Calcaterra, M. (2001). Is agriculture sector growth a Pre-condition of economic growth? The case of South Africa. Working paper 2001-01,department of agricultural economics, extension and rural development, university of Preforia, Pretoria, 0002. South Africa.

Udemezue, J. C., &Osegbue, E. G. (2018). Theories and models of agricultural development. Annals of Reviews and Research, 1(5), 555574.

Ukaa, E. I. (2024). Impact of Fadama III Development Programmes on the Income and Agricultural Outputs of Farmers in Benue State.Scholar J Food and Environment, 1(6)

Umaru, M., Bala, S. A., Maigida, U. T., & Dukku, S. H. (2025). Role of agriculture in driving economic growth in Nigeria: Opportunities and challenges. International Journal of Agriculture and Earth Science, 11(10), 94 105. https://doi.org/10.56201/ijaes.vol.11.no10.2025.pg94.105

Williams CL. Interreligious encounter in a West African city: A study of multiple religious belonging and identity among the Yorùbá of Ogbómòsó, Nigeria; 2016.

World Bank. (2023). World Development Report 2023: The role of agriculture in inclusive growth. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.